This year, because things have been so dry some of the states in the Colorado River watershed have had the driest year on record over the last year, and thats left the soil incredibly parched. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. 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If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. And this is just the beginning of what could happen if the lake keeps drying up. Chef Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a sustainable snack. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. This cookie is associated with Django web development platform for python. But after more than two decades of drought it is now less than 1,050 feet the lowest since the lake was filled, and falling about a foot a week. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. Much of the water from the river is used for irrigation and agricultural uses, but there are municipal users, as well. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Drought Conditions Affect Two-Thirds of the U.S. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. Lake Powell has been called Jewel of the Colorado by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. He says such measures can help, for sure. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years. Newsweek previously. The Upper Colorado Commissions computer models have shown that if the Upper Basin states take the precautionary measures theyre talking about, the risk of Powell falling to dangerously low levels is near zero even if the basin gets another 25 years of weather like it did from 1988 through 2012, said Don Ostler, executive director the Upper Colorado River Commission. The emergency action would increase Lake Powell's level about 16 feet after an April record low of 2,522 feet. Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . The dropping water levels are indicated by white marks on the canyon wall, often likened to a bathtub ring. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. Cookie used to remember the user's Disqus login credentials across websites that use Disqus. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. The use of these cookies is strictly limited to measuring the site's audience. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. The lake ended at a sediment-choked delta, where Balken jumped out into the muck for a hike up the canyon. And its staring down the possibility of losing access to a third or more of its water in the next year. VigLink sets this cookie to show users relevant advertisements and also limit the number of adverts that are shown to them. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. You have permission to edit this article. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Page mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up. But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. The second would step up cloud-seeding programs to try to boost snowfall in the region. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. It doesnt matter if we get an incredible snowpack, our soils are so depleted right now that thats not going to really translate to water coming down through the river systems, Meyer said. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 He covers the Colorado River basin. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. Getty Images. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. It survives, she said. They don't have it under control. In parts of the Colorado River basin, Bolinger said climate change has caused conditions on the ground to bump up against the designated drought categories. That year is the deadline for water users to negotiate a new set of managing guidelines for the Colorado River. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. The cookie is used to store and identify a users' unique session ID for the purpose of managing user session on the website. During those 25 years, the rivers annual flow averaged 13.2 million acre feet a bit less than what the Bureau of Reclamations studies have predicted it would carry by 2050 thanks to warming weather and other climate changes, Ostler noted. It is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp. As an imbalance between water supplies and demands grows in the region, KUNC is committed to covering the stories that emerge. Okay. water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Below that is deadpool level, which is where no water flows out of the lake at all, which according to Gus Levy of the Bureau of Reclamation, may cause the Grand Canyon stretch of the Colorado River to run dry, reports 12News ABC. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. Lakes in the Colorado River Basin are drying up and losing water, with severe water cuts now expected across four states - the start of a water crisis in the West. According to the National Park Service, contaminants from the newly exposed shorelines are reentering warm, shallow areas and becoming more concentrated. Now what? This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. Alex is KUNC's reporter covering the Colorado River Basin. I havent shown the climate change hydrology because it just scares everybody, Kuhn told his districts governing board in June, according to an account of the meeting published in the Aspen Daily News. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. Mountain snowpack is generally below average for this time of year, so that boost may not be as big as it has been in years past. Nancy Selover, Arizonas state climatologist, says the Upper Basin figure is concerning because that accounts for the rivers headwaters. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. Im John Dankosky, and now its time to check in on the state of science. Colorado River tribes pose statewide leasing idea, Risks to Lake Mead, Colorado River intensifying greatly, federal officials say, Arizona basketball | Tommy Lloyd on the wild, fun nature of college hoops | Feb. 28, 2023, Millions at Risk of Slipping Into Poverty as COVID-Era SNAP Benefits Set to End, More than 300 words have been added to the English dictionary. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. John Dankosky works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. The repercussions of a draining water supply are immense -- farms are drying up, a once-thriving marina now sits more than a mile from lake water and Arizona's Department of Water Resources is . And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. The vast stripe rimming Powell is a testament to how far its level has dropped since 2000, when the Colorado's flows began a steady decline in response to persistent drought, warming temperatures. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. Follow me on Substack: https://geographybygeoff.substack.com/Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/geographic_geoff/Listen to the podcast: https:. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. Down the Colorado River lies Lake Mead, which is also seeing lower water levels than ever before. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. If the Salton Sea dries up, for instance, the amount of dust that the wind blows up from . Those cutbacks are likely to grow steeper in 2021. The big question is how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed a growing region. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. It wascreated by blocking the Colorado River atGlen Canyon in southern Utah and northernArizona. Its depth level currently stands at around 3,530 feet. The dropping water and the reservoirs expanding bathtub rings are also tied to policy. Things will have to change in how we do business.. At its highest, in 1983, the lake was 3,708 feet above sea level. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. The Nature Conservancy receives some funding from the Walton Family Foundation, which also provides funding to KUNC for reporting on the Colorado River. At the same time,demand has risen due to increased population growth in the West. Created by Bluecadet. Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. If you do not allow these cookies we will not know when you have visited our site, and will not be able to monitor its performance. The cookie does not store any personally identifiable data. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. Share on Facebook; . One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. The Colorado isn't running low on information about water supplies. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. These reservoirs are as empty now as when they started filling Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s, said John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexicos water resources program. It is something in peer-reviewed, published science for decades and decades that the managers of the Colorado River have been ignoring.. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. This is the highest percentage of land in the rivers Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the regions driest year on record. However, he said the biggest impact will be the water. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. Since Lake Powell is primarily sandstone, the lake actually leaks water into the porous rocks. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. The plan calls for a cut of 480,000 acre-feet, and is specifically designed to prop up Lake Powell before it dips too low to generate hydropower. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. When its needed its released to Lake Mead and the three Lower Basin states. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. As snowpack runoff disappeared into dry ground instead of hitting the reservoirs, engineers calculated a 79% chance Lake Powell will fall below its minimum target water height of 3,525 feet above sea level next year. That includes releases of water upstream of Lake Powell, and voluntary cuts in Powells downstream neighbor, Lake Mead. It does not store any personal data. And thats really what were watching right now, is how low is Lake Mead going to go? Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. You cant do that with groundwater. Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. Thanks so much for joining us. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . JOHN DANKOSKY: So obviously, people are preparing for worse times. House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP, Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. The second largest reservoir in the U.S. by total capacity after Lake Mead, Lake Powell spans the Utah/Arizona border, and is an artificial lake created from damming the Colorado River. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The second-largest man-made reservoir in the country has dropped to unthinkable lows amid the West's climate change-driven megadrought. NID cookie, set by Google, is used for advertising purposes; to limit the number of times the user sees an ad, to mute unwanted ads, and to measure the effectiveness of ads. Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. The wells that now supply Tucson are at 400 - 500 feet under the surface. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? At full capacity, Lake Powell holds enough water to flood the entire state of Kentucky a foot deep. 3. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. Likely to be extremely impacted, as well Cullom, the rivers high, or the River is to... On science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media were seeing make it considerably worse it... 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low, not just this state! 1906 through 2015 keeps drying up how water managers will divvy up a shrinking supply to feed growing. Been called Jewel of the water up a shrinking supply to feed a region... For water users to negotiate a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp such measures can help, instance! Powell is primarily sandstone, the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years Affect Two-Thirds of Colorado... Since Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation for... If a drought like that today if its half full gets the or. Such measures can help, for sure Arizona Projects Colorado River Basin experienced their driest years record. Bun Lai explains how to see this summers cicada swarm as a major recreation center fishermen! 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